Why 2007 won’t be like 1993

June 24th, 2007

The net is abuzz about the Apple iPhone these days and a debate is emerging in the days before its release. Some see the iPhone as following in the iPod’s success, quickly becoming a runaway hit. Others see the the iPhone as closer to Apple’s ill fated Newton. When first released in 1993, the Newton created a new category of device: the Personal Digital Assistant (coined by John Scully, the then CEO of Apple). The idea was that it could be a digital device that would replace the paper-based organizers that many professionals carried with them. It would keep track of your notes, contacts, calendar, and tasks. The Newton had two breakthrough features to make this possible. The first was handwriting recognition. You would write on it either by printing or using cursive handwriting and it would translate your handwriting into digital text. Second, it had “intelligence”: if you wrote “Lunch with Steve” it would schedule an appointment at the next noon slot with the most likely Steve; from your address book. I had one of the early Newtons; it was not the original MessagePad 100, but a later revision called the MessagePad 120. Nonetheless, it gave me a a chance to see what it was like in the real world. In concept it was a great idea. In practice it was hobbled by a few critical flaws:

  • handwriting recognition: I often have trouble deciphering my own handwriting, so how well can a handheld computer do? The Newton actually could do a reasonable job, but it was just too slow. Text entry turned into a write, wait, write cycle. It was not natural to use. I tried taking notes with it in college, but it was not practical.
  • speed: in addition to the slow handwriting recognition, the overall device was too slow. This was addressed in a later revision, the MessagePad 2000, but by then the Newton had already lost credibility with the public.
  • the public wasn’t ready: this device was ahead of its time, and people didn’t have enough faith in the advantage of digital storage to overlook the shortcomings. There was no desktop synching as in today’s world.

The iPhone is a totally different beast. In terms of functionality, it doesn’t really offer anything new. In fact, many of the biggest critics of the iPhone point out that there are plenty of devices that are capable of surfing the web, sending and receiving emails, playing music and video, etc.. I have one called the Palm Treo 700p. But that is not what is exciting about the iPhone. What makes the iPhone different is the interface (the same advantage that attracts users to the Mac). The iPhone simplifies these tasks and integrates them together in an elegant way. In addition, the substantially larger screen of the iPhone (as well as a full-fledged web browser) stands to make web browsing and other features much more robust than they have been on other devices. In essence, the Newton tried to define a new type of device and fell short due to several limitations. The iPhone tries to improve upon an existing category of device by addressing many current limitations. Will Apple succeed? We’ll find out at the end of the week.

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