Today’s primary in Pennsylvania strikes me as rather unexciting. There are a few options:

a) A single digit win for Clinton
b) A double digit win for Clinton
c) A win of any sort for Obama.

Many are predicting outcome a, which really doesn’t change much in the election. There will be more pressure for Clinton to drop out with a small victory, but ultimately her campaign will treat this as a victory and the battle will continue on.

Outcome b will give Clinton’s campaign a boost, but still is unlikely to change the outcome of the future races and, ultimately, the nomination.

The only significant outcome would be option c, but polls are suggesting this will be highly unlikely. The only place polls completely missed the winner was in New Hampshire, but that appears to have been an outlier. Generally, Clinton has done slightly better than predicted by the polls, most likely because “undecided” voters tend to go with Clinton, probably because she is better known and thus considered “safer”.

I predict a 10-point victory for Clinton, and she may even creep into the low double-digits. We’ll see tonight.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 at 6:17 am and is filed under politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.