The Tablet

January 26th, 2010

There is no shortage of hype surround the impending release of Apple’s “tablet” computer tomorrow. According to rumors, Steve Jobs has said “this will be the most important thing I’ve ever done”, yet tablets have, as a rule, largely been a failure in the marketplace. Bill Gates hailed the Windows tablets that first appeared around a decade ago as a revolution in computing, but they were only revolutionary in that they were computers that no one actually bought. Okay, perhaps that’s a bit harsh, but the bottom line was that tablets have been largely relegated to niche markets. How can Apple’s be different?

Microsoft’s tablet platform failed largely because it wasn’t clear what problem it was solving. The main advantage of tablets is that they easier to hold and position for viewing, and somewhat less socially awkward to use when talking to other people. Pen input is a bit of an advantage for certain tasks, like drawing, but is also a drawback for text input, where a keyboard is usually faster. What Apple has to do is offer a solution to a problem; what Apple is good at is offering a solution to a problem that no one realized they had until the solution became apparent.

Consider the iPhone. It’s not a particularly great phone, but it’s a superb pocket computer. Most people who use it as such probably didn’t realize they needed a pocket computer before it appeared.

What’s the problem Apple could solve with the tablet? I think Apple is planning to redefine what a portable computer is. Consider a few points:

The web has become a prominent way to get news and information, but its free-form nature and fluctuating media standards makes it a difficult platform to deliver a rich experience. How do create a design when your readers might have a wide range of screen sizes, browser technologies, or plug-ins? The difference between the experience of the New York Times iPhone App and their mobile web page highlights this difference.

One thing that Apple can bring to the table is a unified electronic multimedia publication format that has a built-in model for generating revenue, something which has eluded publishers in the digital age.

But one strategy that is pervasive throughout Apple’s product line is the aversion to devices that perform only a single task. Unlike Amazon’s Kindle, the tablet will not be exclusively a reader. Instead, what I think we’ll see is essentially a larger version of the iPhone: a (relatively) full sized, touch-based portable computer.

Bottom-line predictions:

10 inch touchscreen, LCD (not AMOLED)
iPhone OS – ability to run existing apps and new apps designed for the larger screen
Built-in 3G and WiFi
Built-in front-facing camera, capable of video chat
Some sort of stand, either built-in (e.g. a kickstand) or small and portable as an accessory
Screen-based keyboard like iPhone with option for external keyboard
SD card slot (would allow photo viewing and external storage)
Versions of iLife and iWork optimized for tablet
This will be marketed as redefining what the portable computer should be – most people will not need a “full” computer except for limited tasks

The item I’m least confident about is the SD card slot, but it could make a lot of sense for integrating in with existing computers.

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